By the end of 3 November 2026 neither the White House briefings page nor the Canadian Prime Minister's news feed has any statement of a US and Canada tariff deal; on 1 November Mark Carney said only that teams would work toward a deal in the coming weeks (Al Jazeera).
Hunch. Carney said on 26 October that Canada's position has not changed, and Trump himself added that a deal might take months.
The 3 November deal market resolves on White House statements and the news page of the Prime Minister of Canada: YES if by the end of 3 November 2026, Washington time, both governments publicly confirm a deal that cuts tariffs between the US and Canada. A deal announced by only one side, or US tariff cuts made without a deal, count as NO, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it together if the official pages do not open.
We looked for cases where the US was in talks to cut tariffs with a much smaller neighbour that had answered US tariffs with its own. We found six such talks since 2018, five with Canada and one with Mexico. Each time it was the same man deciding for the US: Donald Trump.