Hunch. Reuters reported on 26 October that the two sides are working on a deal to ease steel and car tariffs, but Carney says Canada will not give more.
The 30 November deal market resolves the same way on the same pages: YES if by the end of 30 November 2026, Washington time, both governments publicly confirm a deal that cuts tariffs between the US and Canada. A deal announced by only one side, or US tariff cuts made without a deal, count as NO, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it together if the official pages do not open.
We looked for cases where the US was in talks to cut tariffs with a much smaller neighbour that had answered US tariffs with its own. We found six such talks since 2018, five with Canada and one with Mexico. Each time it was the same man deciding for the US: Donald Trump.