From 28 October to 3 November 2026 the White House presidential actions and briefings pages show no new tariff cut or exemption on Canadian goods; the only Canada proclamation is the one of 23 October, printed in the Federal Register on 30 October, which does not count.
Hunch. The White House cut some tariffs on 23 October and added new ones the same day, saying it still had to deal with Canada's treatment of US goods.
The tariff cut market resolves on White House statements: YES if from 28 October to the end of 3 November 2026 the White House announces a new cut or new exemptions on tariffs on Canadian goods beyond those of 23 October, outside any deal both governments confirm. The 23 October cuts that start on 30 October do not count, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it together if whitehouse.gov does not open.
We looked for cases where the US was in talks to cut tariffs with a much smaller neighbour that had answered US tariffs with its own. We found six such talks since 2018, five with Canada and one with Mexico. Each time it was the same man deciding for the US: Donald Trump.