History. 2 of 5: in the five years when the rule was still open on 10 November (1989, 1997, 2019, 2020, 2025), it became law by 31 December in 1997 and 2019, both in a weaker form; the 1989 rules became law in February 1990, and in 2020 and 2025 they were dropped. Across all nine rules, 4 of 9 became law in the year they first passed a chamber.
Hunch. On 9 November NPR reported that the defence bill meant to carry these chip rules is stuck in the politics of the Iran war.
The chip law market resolves on US public laws on GovInfo and White House signing statements: YES if a federal law that sets a binding limit or requirement on exports of advanced AI chips or chipmaking equipment becomes law after 9 November and before 1 January 2027, such as a ban, a licence rule, location checks, review by Congress or an order to the Commerce Department to set such controls, including by writing existing ones into law, even inside the defence law. Studies, reports, briefings, funding, rules only on other goods, on investment or on remote and cloud access to chips, and general sanctions or blacklists on a whole country or company do not count, and Reuters and The Guardian are the backups.
We looked for cases where one chamber of the US Congress passed a rule limiting technology exports to a rival, such as China, and Congress then decided whether to make it law. We found nine such rules from 1989 to 2025, eight of them in the yearly defence law. The subjects ranged from satellites in 1989 to AI chips in 2025. (GovInfo; GovInfo; GovInfo; GovInfo)