History. 4 of 5: of the five years still open on 10 November, the yearly defence law was signed by 31 December in 1989 (29 November), 1997, 2019 and 2025; in 2020 it became law on 1 January after a veto override. In 1989 the export rule itself sat in a separate State Department law, but this market asks about the defence law. Across all nine, the law carrying the rule was law by the end of that year 7 of 9.
Hunch. On 9 November NPR reported that this year's defence bill is stuck in the politics of the Iran war, with about five weeks of the session left.
The defence law market resolves YES if the National Defense Authorization Act for 2027 is signed, or a veto is overridden, by 23:59 Eastern time on 31 December 2026, as shown on GovInfo and White House pages. If it moves to the new Congress, it is NO, and Reuters and The Guardian are the backups.
We looked for cases where one chamber of the US Congress passed a rule limiting technology exports to a rival, such as China, and Congress then decided whether to make it law. We found nine such rules from 1989 to 2025, eight of them in the yearly defence law. The subjects ranged from satellites in 1989 to AI chips in 2025. (GovInfo; GovInfo; GovInfo; GovInfo)