History. 1 of 5: of the five years still open on 10 November, the President vetoed the yearly defence law only in 2020 (overridden on 1 January); in 1989 (29 November), 1997, 2019 and 2025 he signed it. In 1989 the President vetoed a separate State Department law that carried the export rule, which this market does not count. Across all nine, a law carrying the rule was vetoed 2 of 9 times.
Hunch. On 9 November NPR reported that the defence bill is stuck in the politics of the Iran war, so it may not reach Trump by 31 December.
The veto market resolves YES if President Trump returns the 2027 defence bill with a veto, or the White House announces a pocket veto, a veto by not signing while Congress is away, by 31 December 2026. Signing, the bill becoming law unsigned or no bill reaching him is NO, with White House pages and GovInfo first and Reuters and The Guardian as backups.
We looked for cases where one chamber of the US Congress passed a rule limiting technology exports to a rival, such as China, and Congress then decided whether to make it law. We found nine such rules from 1989 to 2025, eight of them in the yearly defence law. The subjects ranged from satellites in 1989 to AI chips in 2025. (GovInfo; GovInfo; GovInfo; GovInfo)