History. 0 of 5: in the five years still open on 10 November, no rule became law unweakened by 31 December; in 1997 and 2019 it was weakened, the 1989 rules came in February 1990, and in 2020 and 2025 they were dropped. Across all nine, 1 of 9 became law unweakened in the same year (1999).
Hunch. On 9 November senators Elizabeth Warren and Jim Banks, from both parties, asked Congress to put the AI Overwatch Act into the defence bill.
The licence review market resolves YES if a law takes effect by 31 December 2026 under which licences to export advanced AI chips go to Congress for review, with time for Congress to block them, as in the AI Overwatch Act. A rule that only asks for notice or a report is NO, with GovInfo first and Reuters and The Guardian as backups.
We looked for cases where one chamber of the US Congress passed a rule limiting technology exports to a rival, such as China, and Congress then decided whether to make it law. We found nine such rules from 1989 to 2025, eight of them in the yearly defence law. The subjects ranged from satellites in 1989 to AI chips in 2025. (GovInfo; GovInfo; GovInfo; GovInfo)