Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market14 Sep 2026

Does the UK ask the US for the man's return or a waiver by 14 Oct?

BinaryResolves 14 Oct 2026
History75%
Hunch30%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

By 14 October 2026 neither gov.uk nor Hansard carried a UK request for the man's return or an immunity waiver; the only ministerial statement, Lord Hanson in the Lords on 16 September, said only that ministers had discussed the case with the US embassy.

Resolved 14 Oct 2026
How this resolves

Resolves YES if, by 23:59 BST on 14 October 2026, a gov.uk press release or a written or oral ministerial statement on hansard.parliament.uk states that the UK has asked the United States to return the embassy staff member or to waive his immunity; being in contact with the embassy or raising the case does not count. If neither site carries it, on-the-record reports in the BBC and the Guardian of a minister saying so settle it, and silence resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

6 of 8
Six of the last eight cases held: Sacoolas 2019, New Zealand 2017 and 2014, the United States 2014, Pakistan 2011, Japan 2001. The two misses are British: Manchester 2022 and Wulfson 2026. With Italy 1998 and 1984, six of ten.

We looked for cases where a foreign country used immunity, its own courts or a flight home to keep one of its people away from the host country's police after a serious alleged crime. We counted a case if, within 30 days of it becoming public, the host government said in public that it had asked for the protection to be lifted or the person returned, or brought its own charge. Below are the last eight, since 2001: Britain first, then other countries.