Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market14 Sep 2026

Does the Met confirm its own investigation into the man by 14 Oct?

BinaryResolves 14 Oct 2026
Hunch35%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The Met newsroom carried no statement on the case by 14 October 2026, and the minister told the Lords on 16 September only that the Met was in contact and co-operating with US law enforcement, which the rule does not count.

Resolved 14 Oct 2026
How this resolves

(adjacent). Resolves YES if the Metropolitan Police newsroom at news.met.police.uk states by 23:59 BST on 14 October 2026 that the force has opened its own investigation into the staff member or into the suspected offences in London; liaising with a US investigation does not count. If the newsroom is silent, BBC and Guardian reports of a Met statement to that effect settle it, and silence resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

6 of 8
Six of the last eight cases held: Sacoolas 2019, New Zealand 2017 and 2014, the United States 2014, Pakistan 2011, Japan 2001. The two misses are British: Manchester 2022 and Wulfson 2026. With Italy 1998 and 1984, six of ten.

We looked for cases where a foreign country used immunity, its own courts or a flight home to keep one of its people away from the host country's police after a serious alleged crime. We counted a case if, within 30 days of it becoming public, the host government said in public that it had asked for the protection to be lifted or the person returned, or brought its own charge. Below are the last eight, since 2001: Britain first, then other countries.