Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market14 Sep 2026

Is the man charged in the United States by 14 Oct?

BinaryResolves 14 Oct 2026
Hunch25%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No charge naming the man was reported by the BBC, the Guardian or Reuters by 14 October 2026; the justice.gov newsroom blocks scripts and could not be read, so silence in the named media settles it.

Resolved 14 Oct 2026
How this resolves

(adjacent). Resolves YES if the US Department of Justice at justice.gov/news publishes a charge, complaint or indictment naming the former London embassy staff member by 23:59 BST on 14 October 2026. If the department has not published, a named court filing reported by two of the BBC, the Guardian and Reuters settles it, and silence resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

6 of 8
Six of the last eight cases held: Sacoolas 2019, New Zealand 2017 and 2014, the United States 2014, Pakistan 2011, Japan 2001. The two misses are British: Manchester 2022 and Wulfson 2026. With Italy 1998 and 1984, six of ten.

We looked for cases where a foreign country used immunity, its own courts or a flight home to keep one of its people away from the host country's police after a serious alleged crime. We counted a case if, within 30 days of it becoming public, the host government said in public that it had asked for the protection to be lifted or the person returned, or brought its own charge. Below are the last eight, since 2001: Britain first, then other countries.