History. Of four US decisions on troops still open this late, one ended in a cut within the next eight weeks, South Korea in 2004, and three did not.
Hunch. In June, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior officials stopped a planned new announcement of troop cuts, and no new cut has been named since.
The troop cut market resolves YES if, from 5 November to the end of 31 December 2026, Washington time, the War Department at war.gov, the president or his press office at whitehouse.gov announces that a named number of US troops or named units will leave Europe; rotations, moves between European countries and a unit leaving without replacement that the US government does not itself name a cut do not count. If war.gov cannot be opened, two of Reuters, AP, Politico Europe, The Guardian and BBC News settle it, but only when they quote the War Department, the US Army, the president or his press office, since a report that only calls a move a cut does not count.
We looked for cases where the US government reached a decision on whether to cut its troops in an allied country, outside a war, whatever the result. We found seven such decisions since 1970, from South Korea under Richard Nixon to Germany this May. Five ended with a cut announced, and twice no cut was named.