History. Each of the five cuts the US announced after deciding on its troops in an ally was 5,000 troops or more, from 5,000 in Germany in 2026 to 20,000 in Korea in 1970.
Hunch. Last year one US brigade went home from Romania without a replacement, about 700 fewer troops there, a step far smaller than 5,000.
The size market counts only if the troop cut market resolves YES and is void otherwise: YES if the first announcement that makes that market YES names 5,000 or more US troops leaving Europe, NO if it names fewer. Later announcements are not added, and if only units are named, the number comes from war.gov or from two of Reuters, AP, Politico Europe, The Guardian and BBC News.
We looked for cases where the US government reached a decision on whether to cut its troops in an allied country, outside a war, whatever the result. We found seven such decisions since 1970, from South Korea under Richard Nixon to Germany this May. Five ended with a cut announced, and twice no cut was named.