History. Of four US decisions on troops still open this late, none moved troops from one ally to another within the next eight weeks.
Hunch. In May, Donald Trump said he would send 5,000 US troops to Poland.
The troop move market resolves YES if, from 5 November to the end of 31 December 2026, Washington time, the War Department, the president or his press office announces that a named number of US troops or named units will move from one European country to another. Rotations with replacement, exercises, troops coming from the US itself and words about a move with no number or unit do not count, and if war.gov cannot be opened, two of Reuters, AP, Politico Europe, The Guardian and BBC News settle it.
We looked for cases where the US government reached a decision on whether to cut its troops in an allied country, outside a war, whatever the result. We found seven such decisions since 1970, from South Korea under Richard Nixon to Germany this May. Five ended with a cut announced, and twice no cut was named.