The EIA weekly series released on 27 October 2026 puts the US regular petrol price for 26 October at $4.269 a gallon, below $4.465.
History. 4 of 6 decisions: the price four weeks later was higher than the last weekly price before the decision ($4.465 on 28 September).
Hunch. The government weekly price fell to $4.354 on 5 October, 2.5% below the 28 September level it has to beat (EIA figures, 6 Oct).
Resolves on the EIA weekly series of US regular retail petrol prices, checked after its release on 27 October 2026: YES if the value for 26 October is above $4.465 a gallon, NO if it is below, and VOID if it is exactly $4.465. If the release moves, the market waits for the value for 26 October. Reuters and Al Jazeera are the backup.
We looked for cases where the US government decided to release oil from its emergency reserve because a war, embargo or blockade abroad had cut supply. We found six decisions since 1990, one of them carried out in two steps, so seven releases in all. We then compared the weekly petrol price before each decision with the price four weeks later.