History. Six times out of six, the third estimate two months later kept the war quarter on the same side of the quarter before it as the first figure; one more time (2003) the final figure tied and does not count.
Hunch. Between its first and third estimates, the April to June figure rose by 0.7 points, enough to flip a first figure close to the line.
The December market resolves on the BEA third estimate for July to September, due at 8:30 am on 23 December 2026: YES if growth for July to September is on the same side of April to June, faster or slower, as in the first estimate of 29 October, and NO if it has changed side. It is void if the two rates are equal on either date, and The Guardian and Al Jazeera settle it if the BEA page is down.
We looked for cases where a war pushed up oil or energy prices in a quarter, or in the quarter before, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis then published its first estimate of growth. We found seven such quarters since 2003, from four wars: Iraq, Libya, Ukraine and Iran. Every one of the seven first figures was 2.0% a year or less, below today’s 2.2%.