The Government of Canada news feed and the Department of Finance Canada releases from 9 September to 8 October 2026 show no new trade measure against the United States, and BBC News reported on 29 September that Canada was not expected to retaliate further.
The retaliation market resolves YES if the Government of Canada announces a new trade measure against the United States between 9 September and 8 October, whether tariffs, quotas, export controls or procurement exclusions, as published on canada.ca or by the Department of Finance Canada. The package already in force on 8 September does not count and a restatement of it resolves NO; if Ottawa publishes nothing, Guardian, BBC and Reuters reports of a formal government announcement settle it.
We looked at every time since 2017 that the US government put a new import limit on a treaty ally or close trading partner, and at what the target government did in the next 30 days. We found eight. Canada is the target in five of them.