History. 6 of 9. After six of nine US moves to defend an American company, a new ruling against a US company came within 97 days.
Hunch.
Resolves YES if the European Commission's press corner publishes, between 25 September and 31 December 2026, a fine or a final decision that a US tech company broke the Digital Services Act, the Digital Markets Act or EU competition law, including a decision to impose daily fines. Preliminary findings, new investigations, accepted promises and court rulings do not count, and Al Jazeera and Reuters are the backups.
We looked for times since 2001 when the US government publicly took the side of an American company against the European Commission: a statement, a paper, a presidential order, a tariff threat or a visa ban. Then we checked whether the Commission's next ruling against a US company came within 97 days. It came after six of nine such moves. The Commission decided alone every time.