What replaces the Section 122 tariffs when they lapse on 24 July?
Multiple choiceResolves 31 Jul 2026
Hunch
New Section 301 action in force34%
Section 122 re-invoked or another stopgap37%
No successor by end of July29%
Your forecast
New Section 301 action in force
Section 122 re-invoked or another stopgap
No successor by end of July
Resolved
Resolved: New Section 301 action in force
By 31 July the final Section 301 forced-labour action covering the same 60 economies had been published in the Federal Register (28 July), succeeding the lapsed Section 122 tariffs.
Resolved 31 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The Section 122 market resolves on what is legally in force on 31 July per the Federal Register: a published 301 action covering substantially the same imports counts as option one; any re-invocation, extension or new stopgap authority counts as option two; otherwise option three.
The pattern behind it
4 of 4
Every Section 301 proposal since 2018 became a final action, so the direction is not in doubt. The split is on shape and speed: three of the four were softened, restructured or rescheduled between proposal and final duty, and the median gap from proposal to action ran about three months.
We looked at the four Section 301 cases since 2018 where the US proposed tariffs and then reached a final decision. Section 301 is the trade law behind the new plan. All four proposals went ahead. But in three of them the final tariffs changed after the hearings, in size or in timing.
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