History. 0 of 7 sessions where a majority that lost the election still had its chamber: no full day without money at the first deadline (CRS measure). With the 6 excluded sessions since FY1977, 1 of 13 (1982). The exchange contract reads 10am ET; in 5 of 7 the law was signed the day after the deadline. In 2024 OMB ceased shutdown preparations early on Saturday, so it reads NO; hours for 1980, 2006, 2010 and 2014 not checked.
Hunch. By May 2026 this Congress had let government money run out three times in one budget year, which no Congress in a past post-election session had done.
The 12 December market resolves on the state of the US government at 10am Washington time on 12 December 2026: YES if it is at least partly shut because money ran out, shown by an order from the White House budget office (OMB) to carry out shutdown plans or by the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) status page, and NO otherwise, including a lapse where OMB tells agencies to keep working and closures for holidays or weather. The Guardian and CBS News confirm it, and two outlets from our source list decide if the official pages do not open.
We looked for cases where a US Congress whose majority had just lost an election still had to fund the government before the new Congress arrived. We found seven such sessions, from 1980 to 2024. Each time, money did not run out for a whole day at the first deadline. Once, in 2018, money ran out at the second deadline.