History. 3 of 5 sessions whose first deadline fell on or after 7 December had another short deadline in the session (2014, 2018, 2022); 1980 and 2024 had one decision straight into the new Congress. Counting 2006 and 2010, which started earlier, 5 of 7.
Hunch. On 4 November a former Republican adviser told CBS he expects one more short funding bill in December and the fight over full-year money in March.
The short December bill market resolves YES if by the end of 31 December 2026, Washington time, a law is in force that funds at least part of the US government to a new date between 12 and 31 December 2026. It resolves NO if money goes straight into 2027 or the full year, if a shutdown goes on with no new law, or if the new date is 1 or 2 January 2027, with the list of new laws on govinfo.gov and reports in The Guardian and CBS News as sources.
We looked for cases where a US Congress whose majority had just lost an election still had to fund the government before the new Congress arrived. We found seven such sessions, from 1980 to 2024. Each time, money did not run out for a whole day at the first deadline. Once, in 2018, money ran out at the second deadline.