South Africa's foreign ministry (DIRCO) published no statement between 16 September and 17 October 2026 barring US officials or declaring a US diplomat persona non grata; its statements in that window mention no such step, and Reuters reported on 25 September that South Africa was open to more talks with the US.
Hunch. South Africa expelled no one when its own ambassador was thrown out in March 2025, and its reply this week said it respects that the US may see things differently, so it sits below even the one-in-eight base.
This market resolves on the media statements of South Africa's Department of International Relations and Cooperation at dirco.gov.za, read on 18 October 2026. It resolves YES if a statement or Home Affairs notice dated 16 September to 17 October 2026 announces visa or entry bans on US officials or citizens, or declares a US diplomat persona non grata; protests, summoning the US envoy and recalling South Africa's own staff do not count, and if DIRCO is unavailable, matching reports in Reuters and BBC News settle it.
We looked at every country whose officials the US State Department put under a public visa ban since January 2025, when Marco Rubio took office. We asked whether that country barred US officials or expelled a US diplomat within 31 days. The eight most recent cases are below. The same US team decided all eight, and Brazil appears three times and Haiti twice. The one country that hit back, China, did so under its 2021 law against foreign sanctions, a tool South Africa does not have.