Does the MPC hold or cut Bank Rate at its decision on 17 September 2026?
BinaryResolves 17 Sep 2026
History3 of 4
Hunch85%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026, so the decision was a hold rather than a rise.
Resolved 17 Sep 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Summary published on bankofengland.co.uk at 12:00 on 17 September 2026; YES if Bank Rate is left unchanged at 3.75% or reduced. NO if it is increased. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and Reuters reports of the decision settle it.
The pattern behind it
3 of 4
Three of the last four episodes since 2008 in which vacancies were falling and pay cooling while inflation sat above target ended with a hold or a cut at the MPC's next decision: 2008, 2011 and 2019. The exception was 2023, when total pay growth above 8% kept the hikes coming. The window and the full record are the same four episodes, because the combination is uncommon: falling vacancies usually arrive with falling inflation. Today's total pay growth of 4.1% is barely half the 2023 figure, which is why September leans hold despite inflation at 2.9%.
We looked at every period since 2008 when UK job vacancies were falling and pay growth was slowing while inflation was at or above the 2% target, as in the May to July figures. We asked one question: did the Bank of England's rate committee hold or cut rates at its next scheduled decision? Four periods fit, and all four are shown. The current period is the one being tested and is not counted.
Some cookies are essential for Hunch to work properly. Others are optional—you decide whether to allow them. We don’t sell your personal data. Learn more and change your choices at any time in Cookie settings.