The ONS labour market overview of 15 September 2026 put vacancies for June to August 2026 at 702,000, down 8,000 on the quarter and above the 700,000 line (ons.gov.uk). Reuters reported the same 702,000 figure that morning (reuters.com, syndicated on finance.yahoo.com).
The market resolves on the headline three-month vacancies estimate for the latest period published in the ONS labour market overview of 15 September 2026 (expected June to August 2026), as first published on ons.gov.uk that day; YES if below 700,000. Later revisions do not affect resolution. Baseline at publication: May to July vacancies stood at 707,000, down 6,000 on the quarter (ONS, 18 August 2026). By 23:59 BST on 15 September 2026. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and the Financial Times settle it.
We looked at every period since 2008 when UK job vacancies were falling and pay growth was slowing while inflation was at or above the 2% target, as in the May to July figures. We asked one question: did the Bank of England's rate committee hold or cut rates at its next scheduled decision? Four periods fit, and all four are shown. The current period is the one being tested and is not counted.