The same ONS release reported payrolled employees down 26,000 between July and August 2026 to 30.2 million, after a 19,000 fall in July (ons.gov.uk). PA Media reported the same August fall (pa.media, syndicated on news.yahoo.com).
The market resolves on the payrolled employees estimate in the same ONS labour market overview of 15 September 2026, as first published; YES if the latest monthly change is negative. Baseline at publication: payrolled employment fell by 13,000 in July, matching June (ONS, 18 August 2026). Later revisions do not affect resolution. By 23:59 BST on 15 September 2026. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and the Financial Times settle it.
We looked at every period since 2008 when UK job vacancies were falling and pay growth was slowing while inflation was at or above the 2% target, as in the May to July figures. We asked one question: did the Bank of England's rate committee hold or cut rates at its next scheduled decision? Four periods fit, and all four are shown. The current period is the one being tested and is not counted.