Hunch. On 29 October Welsh Secretary Stephen Kinnock said the numbers still had to be checked for unintended consequences, and he gave no date.
The 17 November Cynnal market resolves YES if by the end of 17 November 2026, UK time, the UK government publicly confirms on GOV.UK that Cynnal will not be taxed and will not be counted in universal credit, or the Welsh government says on gov.wales that it has that confirmation. Confirming only one of the two, or reporting positive talks, is NO, and BBC News Wales and WalesOnline settle it if the official pages are silent.
We looked for cases where Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland asked the UK government to change a UK rule on money: to keep a new payment free of tax or benefit cuts, or to loosen limits on borrowing and savings. We found six such requests since 2019, four from Scotland and two from Wales. The UK government agreed in full or in part four times, but only once within 77 days.