Hunch. On 29 October Welsh Secretary Stephen Kinnock called the Cynnal talks absolutely positive, but the past payments that were refused had, like Cynnal, no legal route for an exemption.
The March Cynnal market resolves YES on the same terms if the confirmation, or a legal order on legislation.gov.uk that does the same, comes by the end of 31 March 2027, UK time. Talks without a decision are NO, and BBC News Wales and WalesOnline are the backup.
We looked for cases where Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland asked the UK government to change a UK rule on money: to keep a new payment free of tax or benefit cuts, or to loosen limits on borrowing and savings. We found six such requests since 2019, four from Scotland and two from Wales. The UK government agreed in full or in part four times, but only once within 77 days.