Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market01 Nov 2026

Will Wales's 17 Nov draft budget set aside money for Cynnal?

BinaryResolves 17 Nov 2026
Hunch61%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 17 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count from the past requests: none shows whether the asking government put money for the payment in its own budget while waiting. The question comes from the Welsh government's wish to show its promise is moving.

Hunch. In its October supplementary budget the Welsh Government proposed £2m to begin the Cynnal pilot, before any answer from London on tax.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if the Welsh draft budget for 2027-28 on gov.wales, or the finance minister's statement to the Senedd on 17 November 2026, names a sum of money for Cynnal for 2027-28, even one held until the UK decides. A promise with no sum is NO, the market is void if the draft budget is not published by the end of 17 November, and BBC News Wales and WalesOnline are the backup.

The pattern behind it

1 of 6
Once in six requests from Scotland or Wales did the UK government agree within 77 days. Three times it first said no, and twice it agreed later, after 171 and 645 days.

We looked for cases where Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland asked the UK government to change a UK rule on money: to keep a new payment free of tax or benefit cuts, or to loosen limits on borrowing and savings. We found six such requests since 2019, four from Scotland and two from Wales. The UK government agreed in full or in part four times, but only once within 77 days.