Hunch. On 30 October Welsh Secretary Stephen Kinnock said he could not give a time frame for the new borrowing and reserve rules.
The borrowing market resolves YES if by the end of 17 November 2026, UK time, the UK government announces on GOV.UK a change to the Welsh limits on borrowing, on the reserve or on taking money out of the reserve, beyond what it decided on 26 November 2025. Talk of how and when, or work by officials without a decision, is NO, and BBC News Wales and WalesOnline settle it if GOV.UK is silent.
We looked for cases where Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland asked the UK government to change a UK rule on money: to keep a new payment free of tax or benefit cuts, or to loosen limits on borrowing and savings. We found six such requests since 2019, four from Scotland and two from Wales. The UK government agreed in full or in part four times, but only once within 77 days.