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Market03 Sep 2026

Will any Bill be introduced in the Senedd before 31 October 2026?

BinaryResolves 31 Oct 2026
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Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The Senedd's legislation page on 31 October 2026 lists the Taxation (Wales) Bill at Stage 1, so a Bill has been introduced by the date; the Bill's own page on business.senedd.wales was unavailable, so the exact day of introduction was not read.

Resolved 31 Oct 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on the Bills and legislation pages of senedd.wales. YES if any Bill, whether a Government Bill, a Member Bill or a Commission Bill, is recorded as introduced on or before 31 October 2026. The Budget process does not count unless a Bill is formally introduced. If that source has not published in time, BBC News Wales politics and The Guardian settle it.

The pattern behind it

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None of the last eight minority budget rounds in Cardiff or Edinburgh produced an agreement before the draft budget was laid; in every one the deal came after publication, between one day and seven weeks before the decisive vote. The full record since 2009 is nought of ten, including the one round, 2009, where no deal existed and the budget fell before a revised version passed a week later.

In ten budget rounds since 2009, no deal came before the draft. We looked at every year since 2009 when the government in Wales or Scotland had no majority and needed at least one opposition party to pass its annual budget. We left out the years when a standing agreement had already secured the votes: the Bute House Agreement in Edinburgh and the Labour and Plaid Co-operation Agreement in Cardiff, both from 2021 to 2024. We asked whether a deal was announced by the day the draft budget was published. The last eight rounds are shown.