Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market03 Sep 2026

Does the Welsh Government lay a new supplementary budget motion in the Senedd by 3 Oct 2026?

BinaryResolves 3 Oct 2026
Hunch35%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No new 2026-27 supplementary budget was laid by 3 October 2026: the Welsh Government budgets page still lists only the First Supplementary Budget laid on 23 June, which the Senedd voted down on 14 July, and the finance minister only promised new plans in the autumn.

Resolved 3 Oct 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on senedd.wales, where laid documents and the Plenary agenda are published on the day of laying. YES if a supplementary budget motion for 2026-27 is recorded as laid on or before 3 October 2026, whether or not it has been debated. A ministerial statement announcing that one will follow resolves NO. If that source has not published in time, BBC News Wales politics and The Guardian settle it.

The pattern behind it

0 of 8
None of the last eight minority budget rounds in Cardiff or Edinburgh produced an agreement before the draft budget was laid; in every one the deal came after publication, between one day and seven weeks before the decisive vote. The full record since 2009 is nought of ten, including the one round, 2009, where no deal existed and the budget fell before a revised version passed a week later.

In ten budget rounds since 2009, no deal came before the draft. We looked at every year since 2009 when the government in Wales or Scotland had no majority and needed at least one opposition party to pass its annual budget. We left out the years when a standing agreement had already secured the votes: the Bute House Agreement in Edinburgh and the Labour and Plaid Co-operation Agreement in Cardiff, both from 2021 to 2024. We asked whether a deal was announced by the day the draft budget was published. The last eight rounds are shown.