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Market03 Sep 2026

Do NHS Wales figures published 17 Sep 2026 show more pathways waiting over two years in July than in June?

BinaryResolves 17 Sep 2026
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  • Yes
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Resolved
Resolved: YES

The NHS activity and performance summary released on 17 September 2026 put pathways waiting more than two years in July 2026 at just over 4,700, a 15.9 per cent rise on the June figure of about 4,050 (gov.wales, 17 Sep 2026).

Resolved 17 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on the gov.wales edition of 17 September 2026 in which July 2026 is the official month. YES if the pathways waiting more than two years in July exceed the June figure as published on 20 August (just under 4,100). The figure as first published governs; provisional estimates do not count. If that source has not published in time, StatsWales and BBC News Wales settle it.

The pattern behind it

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Four of the last six cash injections aimed at the longest waits in Wales and England were followed by a lower two-year count in the first full month after the announcement. The two that were not, October 2024 and May 2026, both came when the count had already turned upward, and the July 2026 provisional figure shows the count rising again now. The full record is the same six.

We looked at every time since 2022 when the Welsh Government, or the UK government for England, put a named sum or plan into the longest waits. We compared the number waiting more than two years in the last full month before the announcement with the first full month after it. Six rounds qualify, and all six are shown. Scotland and Northern Ireland publish these figures only every three months, so they are left out.