Resolves on gov.wales, on the first edition of the NHS activity and performance summary in which September 2026 is the official month, expected in the week of 19 November 2026 given the seven-week lag. YES if the figure given there for pathways waiting more than two years in September is lower than the figure for August as first published in the October edition. Provisional estimates do not count. If the September edition is not published by 4 December 2026, the market voids. If that source has not published in time, StatsWales referral to treatment tables and BBC News Wales settle it.
We looked at every time since 2022 when the Welsh Government, or the UK government for England, put a named sum or plan into the longest waits. We compared the number waiting more than two years in the last full month before the announcement with the first full month after it. Six rounds qualify, and all six are shown. Scotland and Northern Ireland publish these figures only every three months, so they are left out.