Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market03 Sep 2026

Do NHS Wales figures published 17 Sep 2026 show more than 705,000 open pathways in July?

BinaryResolves 17 Sep 2026
Hunch55%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The same release put the total number of open referral to treatment pathways in July 2026 at just under 709,700, above the 705,000 line (gov.wales, 17 Sep 2026).

Resolved 17 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on the same 17 September edition. YES if the total number of open referral to treatment patient pathways for July 2026 is greater than 705,000. The pathway count is used, not the count of individual patients. If that source has not published in time, StatsWales and BBC News Wales settle it.

The pattern behind it

4 of 6
Four of the last six cash injections aimed at the longest waits in Wales and England were followed by a lower two-year count in the first full month after the announcement. The two that were not, October 2024 and May 2026, both came when the count had already turned upward, and the July 2026 provisional figure shows the count rising again now. The full record is the same six.

We looked at every time since 2022 when the Welsh Government, or the UK government for England, put a named sum or plan into the longest waits. We compared the number waiting more than two years in the last full month before the announcement with the first full month after it. Six rounds qualify, and all six are shown. Scotland and Northern Ireland publish these figures only every three months, so they are left out.