Does the Fed raise the target range at the 15–16 September 2026 meeting?

All four of the last four Federal Reserve chairs to meet a market test in their first year answered by tightening or standing firm at the next scheduled decision: Volcker's bond rout in 1979, Greenspan's crash in 1987, Bernanke's inflation scare in 2006, Powell's volatility spike in 2018. None eased. The window and the full record are the same four cases, because chairs who arrive into calm markets never face the test. Standing firm was enough for two of the four, which is the distinction that matters for September: the record points to a hold, not necessarily to a rise.