Does the FOMC hold or raise the federal funds target range at its meeting on 15 and 16 September 2026?
BinaryResolves 16 Sep 2026
History4 of 4
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Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
The FOMC statement of 16 September 2026 raised the target range by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4 per cent, by a 12 to 0 vote (federalreserve.gov).
Resolved 16 Sep 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on the FOMC statement published on federalreserve.gov on 16 September 2026; YES if the federal funds target range is left at 3.5–3.75% or raised, NO if it is lowered. By 23:59 ET that day. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and the Financial Times reports of the decision settle it.
The pattern behind it
4 of 4
All four of the last four Federal Reserve chairs to meet a market test in their first year answered by tightening or standing firm at the next scheduled decision: Volcker's bond rout in 1979, Greenspan's crash in 1987, Bernanke's inflation scare in 2006, Powell's volatility spike in 2018. None eased. The window and the full record are the same four cases, because chairs who arrive into calm markets never face the test. Standing firm was enough for two of the four, which is the distinction that matters for September: the record points to a hold, not necessarily to a rise.
We looked at every Fed chair since 1979 who faced pressure from markets in his first year, as Warsh does now, with three members against him and bond prices falling. We asked one thing: at the next planned rate decision, did he raise rates or keep them where they were, rather than cut? Four chairs fit, and none of them cut. Chairs who started in calm markets never faced this test and are not included.
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