Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market08 Jun 2026

Which operator carries the first driverless public passenger in London?

Multiple choiceResolves 31 Jul 2026
Hunch
Wayve–Uber22%
Waymo9%
Another operator4%
No public rides by 31 Jul65%
Your forecast
  • Wayve–Uber
  • Waymo
  • Another operator
  • No public rides by 31 Jul
Resolved
Resolved: No public rides by 31 Jul

No operator had carried a public driverless passenger in London by 31 July; Uber–Wayve licences were only granted on 5 August (BBC; Guardian, 5 Aug 2026).

Resolved 31 Jul 2026
How this resolves

The first-passenger market resolves on the operator named in the first verified public driverless passenger ride in Greater London, per the operator's own announcement and coverage in at least two national outlets; 'driverless' means no safety driver in the driving seat.

The pattern behind it

2 of 6
2 of 6 headline robotaxi launch windows since 2016 were met on schedule, and both of those launches were smaller in scope than announced. The base rate leans firmly towards slippage.

Most big robotaxi launch dates since 2016 were missed. We looked at the launch dates that robotaxi companies announced and checked whether the service opened to the public on time. The few launches that did happen came with safety drivers on board or in small areas.