History. 2 of 8 measured gaps between one failure and the next in the five slumps were under 92 days: 36 days in the US and about two months in Ireland. From the first failure to the second it was 0 of 5.
Hunch. The Scotch industry grew again in the first half of 2026 and the US has removed its duties, which weighs against a quick second failure (The Guardian, 29 Sep 2026).
The second failure market resolves on The Gazette (insolvency notices) and Companies House on 29 December 2026 at 10:00: YES if, between 4 October and 24 December 2026, an administrator, receiver or liquidator in a compulsory or creditors' liquidation is appointed to a company that runs a working Scotch whisky distillery in Scotland. GlenWyvis and its group do not count. A members' voluntary liquidation that pays creditors in full, a pause in production, a sale or rumours of a sale resolve NO. BBC News and The Herald are the backup.
We looked for cases where a product takes at least two years to make, by law or by its nature, and a long boom ended with too much stock and falling sales. Large groups and small independents worked side by side, and at least one company went into a formal insolvency process under a court or its lenders. We counted every later failure in the same slump and the months between them. We found five since 1901. Four are drinks: Scotch in the 1980s, and Irish whiskey, American whiskey and cognac now. One is London offices in 1989 to 1992.