By 3 October 2026 the White House had barred no news organisation beyond CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the complex (CNN being kept off Air Force One on 26 September does not count), according to Al Jazeera's coverage of the ban and the court case.
Hunch. Trump said others may join them and named the New York Times and the Washington Post out loud, but he has issued no directive, and the only two escalation gaps on record are fifteen and nineteen days.
The escalation market resolves YES if, by 3 October 2026, the White House bars a further named news organisation from the complex, shown either by a White House statement or by that organisation reporting that its access has been withdrawn. Calling a paper fake news is not enough on its own; a named outlet has to lose access. If the White House publishes nothing, BBC and Guardian reports settle it.
We looked for times since 1972 when the US government cut a named news organisation off from access it already had, and asked whether that organisation itself then went to a federal court over it. We found eight. Cases where a single reporter sued over their own pass are left out because they are a different kind of case. There are three of them, and all three went to court.