Hunch. Washington extended the earlier tariff pause only on the eve of its deadline in August 2025, and both sides have added new curbs during this truce, so a lapse on 10 November is a real risk.
The extension market resolves on the White House fact sheets page and USTR press releases: YES if a text dated 23 September to 10 November 2026 extends the suspension of higher US tariffs on Chinese goods beyond 10 November. The Federal Register is the backup, and BBC News and Reuters reports of the signed text settle it if the official pages are silent.
We looked back for times when a US president welcomed the leader of a rival country on a formal visit, while a US penalty on that country had a fixed date. We count a visit as a delay if the US put off, dropped or softened the penalty at the visit or within about three weeks. We found seven such visits since 1973, and five of them were Chinese leaders. In two, 1973 and 2006, the penalty was in the hands of Congress rather than the president.