Hunch. Jamieson Greer said three to six months is the range Washington could support (Bloomberg, 21 Sep), so a longer term needs the US to move past its own range.
The long-extension market resolves on the same White House and USTR texts: YES if the agreed extension keeps the suspension in force beyond 10 May 2027. No extension, or one of six months or less, resolves NO.
We looked back for times when a US president welcomed the leader of a rival country on a formal visit, while a US penalty on that country had a fixed date. We count a visit as a delay if the US put off, dropped or softened the penalty at the visit or within about three weeks. We found seven such visits since 1973, and five of them were Chinese leaders. In two, 1973 and 2006, the penalty was in the hands of Congress rather than the president.