Hunch. The truce did not stop the US banning Chinese-made humanoid robots this year, and if nothing is signed the higher tariffs return by themselves on 10 November.
The tariff market resolves on the Federal Register and White House fact sheets: YES if a new or higher US tariff on goods from China takes effect or is ordered between 23 September and 10 November 2026, including the end of the suspension on 10 November. Import bans and export controls do not count, and BBC News and Reuters settle it if the official pages are unclear.
We looked back for times when a US president welcomed the leader of a rival country on a formal visit, while a US penalty on that country had a fixed date. We count a visit as a delay if the US put off, dropped or softened the penalty at the visit or within about three weeks. We found seven such visits since 1973, and five of them were Chinese leaders. In two, 1973 and 2006, the penalty was in the hands of Congress rather than the president.