Hunch. This department has already run this exact play once, ending the National Citizen Service in 2024 and designing a replacement instead of refunding it, and its own review of October 2025 handed it the argument that only a quarter of young people have heard of the Youth Parliament.
The autumn market resolves on the government's own announcements at gov.uk, on the Department for Culture, Media and Sport pages there. It resolves YES if, on or before 30 November 2026, the government announces new funding for the UK Youth Parliament with a figure attached, whatever the size: when Booktrust lost its grant in 2010 the money came back at half the old rate, and that counts. A statement of intent with no figure does not count, and nor does a new scheme under another name that absorbs the Youth Parliament. If gov.uk has published nothing, the BBC and PA Media settle it.
We looked for cases since 2010 where a UK government department, or a body giving out its grants, said it was ending the money for a named programme. We asked whether the same funder then announced new money for that programme, with a figure, within 72 days. A promise with no figure does not count. We found eight. Two came from one campaign and two more from one spending review, so they give six separate decisions.