Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market20 Aug 2026

Does another minister or presidential office deputy leave by 15 Sep 2026?

BinaryResolves 15 Sep 2026
History4 of 4
Hunch66%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No removal or resignation of a cabinet minister or deputy head of the Office of the President between 20 August and 15 September 2026 was reported by BBC News, Reuters or the Guardian; the last departure found was the aide dismissed on 19 August (the Guardian, 19 Aug 2026).

Resolved 15 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The departure market resolves YES if a presidential decree published on president.gov.ua or a Verkhovna Rada vote recorded on rada.gov.ua removes, or accepts the resignation of, a serving cabinet minister or deputy head of the Office of the President by 23:59 BST on 15 September 2026. If president.gov.ua is unreachable to automated retrieval, a decree is evidenced by its number and date as reported by at least two of BBC News, Reuters and Ukrainska Pravda (English edition); for Rada votes, the voting record on itd.rada.gov.ua suffices.

The pattern behind it

4 of 4
In all four corruption confrontations since 2022, senior officials were out within days of the investigators moving — a dozen in January 2023, the defence minister that September, two ministers and eventually the chief of staff in 2025. In none of the four did the crisis shift the election question: martial law outlasted every scandal, and the polls stayed shut.

We looked at every big corruption clash in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, where anti-corruption investigators or parliament moved against the government. We found four. Each time, senior officials were out within days. In none of the four did the crisis bring the country any closer to an election.