By 30 September 2026 Mykhailo Fedorov had announced neither a party nor a presidential run; on 21 September Kyiv Post reported that he had not formally announced either, and Mezha reported that he denied creating a party.
The Fedorov market resolves YES if at least two of BBC News, The Guardian, The Times and the Financial Times independently report Fedorov announcing a political party or a presidential candidacy by 23:59 BST on 30 September 2026.
We looked at every big corruption clash in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, where anti-corruption investigators or parliament moved against the government. We found four. Each time, senior officials were out within days. In none of the four did the crisis bring the country any closer to an election.