North Korea is blamed for a $6.3bn crypto theft. The US rarely strikes back fast.

Hackers took about $6.3bn from Binance, the world's biggest crypto exchange, on 29 October. Experts blame North Korea. The US has not acted yet.

Historical sample: 2 of 6.

Current example: 2026 (not part of the historical sample).

2 of 6Two of six times, the US punished a big North Korean crypto theft within nine weeks.

Will the US sanction or sue over the Binance hack by 31 Dec?

History2 of 6Hunch19%

Ledger paused a seller after its buyers lost funds. Will it cut that seller off?

Three of five makers that stopped sales through a seller after buyers were harmed cut it off the same day, and two paused.

History3 of 5Hunch24%

Half the previous 50% drawdowns bottomed near the halfway mark; the others ran on to 77-84% from the peak.

History2 of 4