Missiles hit Kuwait before OPEC+ meets. After past Gulf attacks, output often rose.

Iranian missiles and drones hit bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq on 2 September, 4 days before 7 OPEC+ oil producers set October output.

4 of 7Four of the seven Gulf attacks since 2019 that landed before an OPEC+ decision were followed by an output increase.

Does OPEC+ announce a further output increase for October at its meeting on 6 Sep 2026?

History4 of 7Hunch38%

OPEC+07 Jul

OPEC+ adds oil, Brent is at $72. Past oil spikes faded fast only half the time.

In two of four Gulf supply shocks since 1991 the premium was gone within weeks; in the other two it lingered nine months or more.

History2 of 4Hunch57%