Canada fills six empty seats on 7 December. Will Mark Carney's party gain any?

Canada votes on 7 December to fill six empty seats in parliament. Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals had two of them and are running in all six.

8 of 9In eight of nine such Canadian by-elections the seat stayed with its party, and once it went to another opposition party.

Will the Liberals win exactly two of the six seats on 7 December?

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Quebec votes on 5 October. The party that wants independence leads the polls.

In eight similar Canadian elections the party leading the last polls formed the government each time, and won a majority in six.

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In five of six similar votes where polls favoured staying, staying won. The exception was Catalonia, where many stay voters kept away.

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