Spain14 Oct

Miriam González Durántez starts a party in Spain. Can it win a seat on 29 November?

Miriam González Durántez, a lawyer married to former UK deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, launched Democracia21. It runs in Madrid and Barcelona.

Historical sample: 5 of 8.

Current example: 29 Nov (not part of the historical sample).

5 of 8Five of eight new Spanish parties recorded in the state poll before the vote won a seat.

Will Democracia21 win a seat in Spain's election on 29 November?

History5 of 8Hunch41%

Spain08 Oct

Spain votes on 29 November. In six of seven snap votes, the right won no majority.

In six of seven early Spanish elections, right-wing parties won fewer than 176 seats, and once they won a majority.

History86%Hunch30%

Spain06 Oct

Four of five exiled politicians came home within a month after a court lifted the warrant against them.

History4 of 5Hunch58%

Spain30 Sep

In four of seven similar cases, parliament approved the decree. Every decree Junts opposed since going into opposition fell.

History2 of 3Hunch40%

Spain21 Sep

In two of five similar Spanish cases, the trial opened within 11 months. The two closest took over a year.

History2 of 5Hunch24%