Britain has had no judge on the UN's top court since 2018. Will Dapo Akande win?

Nine candidates run for five seats on the International Court of Justice on 3 November. Britain's candidate is Professor Dapo Akande.

Historical sample: 4 of 4.

Current example: 3 Nov (not part of the historical sample).

4 of 4Four of four new candidates from permanent Security Council countries were elected on the first day.

Will Dapo Akande be elected a judge of the UN's top court?

History4 of 4Hunch82%

UK promises Falklands oil firms legal protection this year. It often takes longer.

One of five times a government promised to shield its firms from foreign rules, it came within 79 days, and four times it took longer.

History1 of 5Hunch48%

Only one of six countries whose consulate was closed in reply hit back with its own closure or expulsions within 30 days.

History17%Hunch24%

In one of four past cases the country making the threat took its named step within a month. Malaysia took 63 days.

History2 of 4Hunch58%

Of the last 6 first UK-US summit talks, 1 ended in a joint statement that day and 2 within a month.

History17%Hunch16%

Three of the last four pledged British measures on Israel landed inside about eight weeks. A settlement trade ban never has.