UK immigration03 Nov

UK net migration nearly halved to 171,000. Will it fall again on 26 November?

The Office for National Statistics gives its next figure on 26 November. It counts those who moved to the UK for a year or more, minus those who left.

Historical sample: 3 of 8.

2022: did not hold
2023: did not hold
2023: did not hold
2024: did not hold
2024: did not hold
2025: held
2025: held
2026: held

Current example: Nov (not part of the historical sample).

3 of 8Three of eight times since 2022, the new figure came in below the one before. All three were the latest.

Will ONS put UK net migration to June 2026 below 171,000?

History3 of 8Hunch62%

UK immigration31 Oct

The UK plans a 10-year wait for migrants to settle. Will it survive next week?

In four of six such reforms, the UK government kept the main rule in its final version, and twice it made it weaker.

History67%Hunch80%

UK immigration10 Oct

The UK wants extra checks on last-minute asylum claims. Will MPs approve by 3 Nov?

Eight of eight times since 2015, MPs on the committee passed the Home Office's own changes before their last meeting.

History100%Hunch93%

UK immigration03 Sep

Andy Burnham says Channel crossings halved. Such claims held up half the time.

Two of the four ministerial claims of a fall in crossings since 2023 were matched by the following thirty days.

UK immigration03 Aug

Home Office tells EU citizens their UK status was an error. Will it back down?

Two of three Home Office status errors since 2014 were corrected; the one it kept defending, TOEIC, never was.

History2 of 3Hunch22%

UK immigration30 Jun

MPs vote on the asylum bill on 13 July. Every major one since 1999 got through.

Every major immigration bill since 1999 cleared Second Reading. Rebellion size is the real variable.

History100%Hunch91%

UK net migration nearly halved to 171,000. Will it fall again on 26 November?

The UK plans a 10-year wait for migrants to settle. Will it survive next week?

The UK wants extra checks on last-minute asylum claims. Will MPs approve by 3 Nov?

Andy Burnham says Channel crossings halved. Such claims held up half the time.

Home Office tells EU citizens their UK status was an error. Will it back down?

MPs vote on the asylum bill on 13 July. Every major one since 1999 got through.

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